Presidential Elections and the Stock Market

Need a pick-me-up? Google “non-human electoral candidates” and get ready to smile. 🥰 Let’s hear it for Sweet Tart the cat who was elected mayor of Omena, Michigan in 2018! We hope she had Secret Service protection. 🫡🐈‍⬛

Sweet Tart’s victory probably didn’t impact the stock market (maybe next time). How about the U.S. presidential election? 🤔 You might be surprised at the truth!

 

Here’s Five Fast Facts on how presidential elections impact the market:

  1. 🫨 Talk Is Cheap - Election seasons can get pretty bonkers! Lots of ideas come out of candidates’ mouths, which can make us think differently about everything from the economy to foreign relations. These shifts in thinking can also cause volatility (AKA wild behavior) in the stock market as people make investing decisions.
  1. ✅ Truth Serum - The good news? Major moves in the stock market are mostly caused by things like company earnings reports, interest rates, and basic economic principles. Any moves in the market caused by elections are likely to be short term blips on the radar.
  1. ⚖️ Chaotic Neutral - Unlike your Uncle Bob ranting at the Thanksgiving dinner table, the stock market doesn’t favor any particular political party. Some people may think one party is better for the market than another, but there’s no cold hard data to back that up. Throughout history, the S&P 500 has averaged positive returns, regardless of who’s in office.
  1. 🗳️ The Low Down - Down-ballot races (AKA races for Senate and the House of Representatives) could also have an impact on the market, but they’re worth watching for another reason. The results of down-ballot elections are predictors of how much the next presidential administration is likely to push through. In other words, they can predict how successful the winning team’s proposed policies will be.
  1. 😅 Keep It Cool - Thinking about making election-based investment moves? Don’t let your emotions take over your accounts! Remember, investing is for the long-haul. Your overall investment strategy will likely live through several different presidential elections. Even if one particular election causes market craziness, it won’t last. 

🔥Bottom line: Was Omena, Michigan a happier place under Sweet Tart’s rule? According to vice mayor Diablo Shapiro (a dog), things were the opposite of ruff. Man, this stuff really writes itself sometimes. Speaking of cats, head here to find out what the last presidential debate means for your paycheck. 

Do you invest based on politics?

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