Do you remember being grounded for lying to your parents when you were a teenager? Remember when you would get detention for cheating on homework assignments? Or how about getting in trouble for things like when you would sincerely tell your parents that you didn’t, in fact, pop their waterbed even though you are sitting in their empty bed frame with a sharp stick and all soaking wet? 💧
On a completely unrelated subject, our friends at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) keep putting out super positive reports every month about how many jobs are being created. Celebrate, everyone, the economy is DOING GREAT!
But…is it really?
Here are Five Fast Facts about job numbers:
- 😉 One Outta Twelve Ain’t Bad, Right? - Looking back at 2023, the BLS has revised the originally reported job numbers down in 11 out of 12 months. The downward revision is an average of 105,000 jobs, for a total of about 1.3 million jobs that simply didn’t exist even though they were reported triumphantly.
- 👍 Off To A(nother) Great Start - The trend has continued this year, too. January was revised down by 124k from the original report. February ticked up, and March is once again being heralded as exceeding expectations in terms of jobs created, but…fool me once, I mean 11 times, right?
- 🤷 I Dunno, Wilbur - The bean counters are scratching their heads and trying to figure out why 2023 appeared to be the Year of the Downward Revision…and not successfully. Maybe it’s the survey method, maybe people are tired of taking surveys, maybe people working from home are slower to respond. Or something.
- 🤔 Not All Jobs Are Created Equal - One actually plausible explanation is that the BLS is counting part time jobs with equal weight as full time jobs. As of February 2024, the rolling 12-month total of full time jobs fell by 284k as part time jobs rose by 921k. Obviously, many part time jobs don’t provide benefits or high enough pay compared to full time jobs…but you probably already know that because you’re working at least one of them already.
- 🔍 Looking Back - But does this happen every year? Nope. In 2022, there were five downward revisions, in 2021 just one. The last time we saw a similar pattern of downward revisions in a 12-month period? 2008. Yeah, that 2008. Buckle up.
🔥Bottom line: When things don’t add up – like loads of jobs being "created" but unemployment also going up – apply a healthy dose of skepticism. Remember, politicians are more interested in keeping their jobs than in your wellbeing, and the media is very buddy-buddy with the politicians. When something doesn’t seem to make sense, question it. Yes, you should believe your lyin’ eyes. That waterbed didn’t pop itself.
What do you think about the job numbers?
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